European leaders are undecided. Their hastily called security summit in Paris on Monday is proof of that.
They are still frustrated by the US’s failure to invite them to talks with Russia on Ukraine’s future. US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he could meet Russian President Vladimir Putin “very soon.”
Under pressure, can Europe put aside political differences and domestic economic concerns to come to the table and negotiate a united front on security spending and Ukraine’s future?
They will try.
The Trump administration is clearly not 100% sure what it wants to do about Ukraine. There were mixed messages over the weekend.
This gives Europe a chance to try to convince the American president that it is an invaluable partner.
They hope to do so through this Paris meeting, emphasizing two key demands made by Donald Trump: that Europe spend and work more on its own defense, and that Europe send troops to Ukraine after the ceasefire.
European leaders have been pushing Kiev to engage directly in ceasefire talks. They have long maintained the view that “there can be no decision on Ukraine without Ukraine”.
It is a chilling realization – much scarier, but not entirely unexpected – that the Trump administration does not prioritize relations with European partners or their defense.
Europe has relied on a security umbrella provided by America since World War II.
Depending on the parameters of the Russia-US talks on Ukraine and how emboldened Putin feels by them, Europeans also fear that this could change the security architecture of their continent.
Putin has historically resented NATO’s expansion eastward. Russia’s neighbors — the tiny, former Soviet Baltic states and Poland — are feeling particularly exposed now.
Not all European countries will be at Monday’s summit. Only the military powers: the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and Denmark — are expected to be represented, along with the Baltic and Nordic countries, and the president of the EU Council and the secretary general of the defense alliance NATO.
Other countries are said to be holding later meetings.
Even at the smaller Paris summit, it will be difficult, if not impossible, to agree on specific increases in defense spending. Poland plans to spend 4.47% of its GDP on defense by 2025. The UK is struggling to achieve 2.5% of its GDP and has yet to do so.
But leaders can promise to coordinate better, spend more within NATO and shoulder the bulk of post-war reconstruction. The EU is also expected to step up its defense efforts.
A large part of the Paris meeting will also focus on sending troops to Ukraine after a ceasefire.
The idea being discussed is not for a peacekeeping force but for a “reassuring force” that would be stationed behind any potential ceasefire lines.
The aim of the European troop presence would be threefold. To send a message to the Ukrainians: they are not alone. Another message to the United States, to show that Europe is “doing its utmost” to defend its own continent, and a final message to Moscow, to warn that if it violates the terms of a potential ceasefire, it will not deal with Kiev alone.